By Asian Development Bank
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Additional info for Asian Development Outlook 2011: South-South Economic Links
The risks to the outlook for the major industrial countries differ, but weakness in one could undermine recovery in the others—and have spillover effects globally. Developing countries are more susceptible to instability originating from rising commodity prices, and for those developing countries that have bounced back fastest from the recent downturn, overheating is a growing concern. Persistent weakness of labor and housing markets in the United States The health of the US economy has a strong impact on the global economy.
This impact is especially evident if we include the global crisis period. For many countries, exports to the PRC had a quantitatively similar impact as exports to the US on their output However, in the long run, the positive impact of the PRC’s imports on its neighbors’ output largely reflects US demand. That is, US demand for final goods is driving the PRC’s demand for components from, say, the Republic of Korea. The evidence has two interesting implications. One is that exports to the US still have a big effect on the performance of East and Southeast Asian economies, despite Asia’s growing weight in the world economy.
Although still manageable, inflation is trending upward, and some economies are showing signs of overheating. Capital inflows from industrial countries, where the monetary stance remains loose, may add further price pressures. As the recovery firms, policy makers may need to put a higher priority on containing inflation. 93 Indonesia c Thailand a Malaysia a China, People’s Rep. 08 Singapore a Korea, Rep. 00 b Includes nonalcoholic beverages. Includes beverages. c Includes beverages and tobacco.
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