By Andrew I. Dale

It is a background of using Bayes theoremfrom its discovery by way of Thomas Bayes to the increase of the statistical rivals within the first a part of the 20 th century. The publication focuses rather at the improvement of 1 of the elemental points of Bayesian statistics, and during this new version readers will locate new sections on individuals to the speculation. moreover, this version comprises amplified dialogue of suitable paintings.

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**Extra info for A History of Inverse Probability: From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson**

**Sample text**

Matth. 11. 29,30. The final entry in this volume occurs in a list entitled "The names of such as were students of Theology in the university of Edinburgh and have been licensed and ordained since Nov. 1709. Those with the letter . o. after their names are ordained, others licensed only. Here we find Bayes's name, but without an "0" after it. There is thus no doubt now that Bayes was educated at Edinburgh University. There is unfortunately no record, at least in those records currently accessible, of any mathematical studies, though he does appear to have pursued logic (under Colin Drummond) and theology.

B J ExPrq dx I area ABeD. 398) that (in essence) in the case of the unit square this corollary yields 1 I(n + 1), independent 10 of x. Proposition 11 9. 2: The figure used by Bayes in the proof of his Proposition 10. where P(M) denotes the probability of M. Corollary. Pr [Ab lAB < P(M) < 0 I p, qj = 1° ExPr q dx / LB ExPr dx. q Proposition 10. Let N be an "unknown event" with probability P(N). Then Pr [AJ I AH < P(N) < Atl AH I p, qj = ~t ExPr q dx / LH ExPr dx q 38 3 Commentary on Bayes's Essay I now propose to examine the ''transliteration'' of Proposition 8 in more detail.

Bayes11720117201Mr Bayesl-ILondonIE. Feb. 1721. E. Mar. 1722. In a further entry in the same volume, in a list headed "Societies", we find Bayes's name in group 5 in both 1720 and 1721. ) In the list of "Prescribed Exegeses to be delivered" we have 1721. Jan. 14. Mr. Tho: Bayes. the Homily. Matth. 24,25,26,27. and 1722. Ja. 20. Mr Tho: Bayes. a homily. Matth. 11. 29,30. The final entry in this volume occurs in a list entitled "The names of such as were students of Theology in the university of Edinburgh and have been licensed and ordained since Nov.